Title: Predicting Concrete’s Strength by Machine Learning: Balance between Accuracy and Complexity of Algorithms

Author(s): B. Ouyang, Y. Song, Y. Li, F. Wu, H. Yu, Y. Wang, G. Sant, and M. Bauchy

Publication: Materials Journal

Volume: 117

Issue: 6

Appears on pages(s): 125-133

Keywords: machine learning; modeling; strength

DOI: 10.14359/51728128

Date: 11/1/2020

Abstract:
The properties of concretes are controlled by the rate of reaction of their precursors, the chemical composition of the binding phase(s), and their structure at different scales. However, the complex and multiscale structure of the cementitious hydrates and the dissimilar rates of numerous chemical reactions make it challenging to elucidate such linkages. In particular, reliable predictions of strength development in concretes remain unavailable. As an alternative route to physics- or chemistry-based models, machine learning (ML) offers a means to develop powerful predictive models for materials using existing data. Here, it is shown that ML models can be used to accurately predict concrete’s compressive strength at 28 days. This approach relies on the analysis of a large data set (>10,000 observations) of measured compressive strengths for industrially produced concretes, based on knowledge of their mixture proportions. It is demonstrated that these models can readily predict the 28-day compressive strength of any concrete based merely on the knowledge of the mixture proportions with an accuracy of approximately ±4.4 MPa (as captured by the rootmean- square error). By comparing the performance of select ML algorithms, the balance between accuracy, simplicity, and interpretability in ML approaches is discussed.